Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.015652 0.017730 0.019999 0.022663 0.025710 0.029090 0.033131
2024-10-13 0.011911 0.014613 0.017825 0.021935 0.027073 0.033310 0.041489
2024-10-20 0.009987 0.012917 0.016600 0.021592 0.028223 0.036778 0.048740
2024-10-27 0.008457 0.011410 0.015292 0.020805 0.028495 0.038928 0.054307
2024-11-03 0.007812 0.010942 0.015224 0.021566 0.030810 0.043937 0.064242
2024-11-10 0.007237 0.010479 0.015075 0.022139 0.032853 0.048705 0.074321
2024-11-17 0.006744 0.010062 0.014922 0.022648 0.034802 0.053475 0.084901
2024-11-24 0.006126 0.009389 0.014306 0.022366 0.035464 0.056288 0.092650
2024-12-01 0.005616 0.008823 0.013787 0.022159 0.036189 0.059222 0.100867
2024-12-08 0.005178 0.008327 0.013324 0.021981 0.036912 0.062185 0.109420
2024-12-15 0.004937 0.008122 0.013304 0.022521 0.038882 0.067427 0.122578
2024-12-22 0.004580 0.007691 0.012868 0.022298 0.039482 0.070303 0.131692
2024-12-29 0.004411 0.007573 0.012962 0.023035 0.041917 0.076820 0.148680
2025-01-05 0.004004 0.007008 0.012234 0.022225 0.041421 0.077851 0.155076
2025-01-12 0.003713 0.006622 0.011787 0.021883 0.041760 0.080478 0.164976
2025-01-19 0.003387 0.006144 0.011132 0.021084 0.041119 0.081098 0.170722
2025-01-26 0.003302 0.006106 0.011285 0.021856 0.043679 0.088421 0.191819
2025-02-02 0.003198 0.006021 0.011341 0.022438 0.045903 0.095281 0.212781
2025-02-09 0.003092 0.005925 0.011366 0.022954 0.048037 0.102170 0.234714
2025-02-16 0.002905 0.005652 0.011020 0.022668 0.048410 0.105239 0.248006
2025-02-23 0.002740 0.005414 0.010724 0.022458 0.048927 0.108677 0.262637
2025-03-02 0.002592 0.005196 0.010452 0.022277 0.049488 0.112267 0.278113
2025-03-09 0.002524 0.005140 0.010511 0.022825 0.051775 0.120152 0.305702